Corona Virus & Day to Day

[ceeaton]

PA is starting to flatten but still going up. They extended our stay at home orders until June 4th, I could see that getting extended. I like it because I'm really digging this work at home thing, even though the pay is nauseating. It's worth the freedom, getting so much done around the house. Now if our two months of constant wind would break, I'd get even more done.

According to weather underground, the county I live in has had 159 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. We are sandwiched on the north, west and east by counties with higher populations and way more cases. Other than the community I live in, most are pretty spaced out here, probably not as much as ND, but better than a metropolitan area like Phila or Pittsburgh.

 

[Chuck E]

I more or less agree with most of your post. However, the underlined/bolded part doesn't make sense, IMHO. We are discussing a highly contagious disease with no known treatment. We are not talking about Type 2 diabetes or something. "Hot spots" are how Covid rolls. Clusters don't skew the numbers, they ARE the numbers. So you want to take out the clusters, and then compare US data to other countries where you DON'T exclude their clusters?

I would also quibble that "flatten the curve" meant that the case numbers (not deaths) would be similar, but just spread out more in time. My understanding was that we also had reason to hope for fewer deaths, because it is harder to survive while being treated by an overwhelmed health system. But I acknowledge that this is a second-order effect.

I am suggesting that the methodology for combatting the virus is much different between rural and urban zones. One size solution definitely does not fit all. I think NYC did their at risk citizens a gross disservice. More protections could have been afforded to seniors and persons with co-morbidities.

 

[mainshipfred]

I'm sure social distancing has helped tremendously as did the stay at home orders and shut downs. However the increase in cases is somewhat relative to the number of tests given which is also increasing. There are several statistics that I have not been able to find.
1. The number of people tested vs. the number of positive cases. Positive cases should be higher since most are tested with symptoms.
2. The number of people that test positive and show little, mild or no symptoms and have recovered.
3. Perhaps along with #2 the number of people that had/have to be hospitalized.
4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.

 

[Boatboy24]

I'm sure social distancing has helped tremendously as did the stay at home orders and shut downs. However the increase in cases is somewhat relative to the number of tests given which is also increasing. There are several statistics that I have not been able to find.
1. The number of people tested vs. the number of positive cases. Positive cases should be higher since most are tested with symptoms.
2. The number of people that test positive and show little, mild or no symptoms and have recovered.
3. Perhaps along with #2 the number of people that had/have to be hospitalized.
4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.

Some of the answers may be here: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

As you noted, positive cases are higher (in VA, at least) and that is due to increased testing. We had our 2nd highest number of new daily cases yesterday - at nearly 1,000. But we also had our highest number of tests, at nearly 10k - we were testing an average of 2k/day just two or 3 weeks ago. A lot of the figures on the VDH page are 'inception to date', but I've been keeping a spreadsheet and updating daily so I can calculate some of the 'per day' numbers.

 

[mainshipfred]

Thanks, that takes care of 1 and 3 in Virginia, but not 2 and especially 4.

 

[ibglowin]

The 4 Corners region is still a huge hot spot for the State. The rest of NM has peaked and is on the decline. We have not relaxed anything still. Down South in Roswell, NM Hobby Lobby tried to open up and try their hand at defying the Governor's order on essential businesses. They didn't even last one day and the NMSP arrived and shut them down immediately. Roswell appears to still be in NM and not TX which has allowed Hobby Lobby to reopen going on 2 weeks ago now.

 

[sour_grapes]

4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.

Your phrasing of the "I can almost guarantee" sentence is ambiguous. I cannot tell if you are saying that you predict that non-Covid deaths in 2020 will be higher or lower than in previous years.

Nonetheless, this study should interest you, as it addresses your question. They found much higher rates of deaths from all causes in 2020 than in previous years, and higher rates attributed to pneumonia in particular.

Here is a popular account of the study: The US experienced 15,400 'excess deaths' from March to April 4 compared with last year, suggesting coronavirus death toll is higher than known

The US experienced 15,400 'excess deaths' from March to April 4 compared with last year, suggesting coronavirus death toll is higher than known

And here is the study itself: Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States

Results There were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19.

 

[Chuck E]

I'm sure social distancing has helped tremendously as did the stay at home orders and shut downs. However the increase in cases is somewhat relative to the number of tests given which is also increasing. There are several statistics that I have not been able to find.
1. The number of people tested vs. the number of positive cases. Positive cases should be higher since most are tested with symptoms.
2. The number of people that test positive and show little, mild or no symptoms and have recovered.
3. Perhaps along with #2 the number of people that had/have to be hospitalized.
4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.

Try this web site: Political Calculations

On the entry for May 6th, he has graphs for every state. The only number that many states are not reporting are the numbers of patients who have recovered.

 

[Chuck E]

The 4 Corners region is still a huge hot spot for the State. The rest of NM has peaked and is on the decline. We have not relaxed anything still. Down South in Roswell, NM Hobby Lobby tried to open up and try their hand at defying the Governor's order on essential businesses. They didn't even last one day and the NMSP arrived and shut them down immediately. Roswell appears to still be in NM and not TX which has allowed Hobby Lobby to reopen going on 2 weeks ago now.

View attachment 61072

Does the NW corner have the Navajo Nation in it?

 

[ibglowin]

Yes.
The Navajo Nation encompasses 4 States so some articles reference the numbers for the entire Nation and some will include only that portion of the State that you are reading about.

Does the NW corner have the Navajo Nation in it?

 

[ibglowin]

If the Navajo Nation were a state, it would have the highest rate of coronavirus cases per capita after New York. At least 100 people have died from the virus and 3,122 people have tested positive.

https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...-infections-continue-to-rise-on-navajo-nation

 

[Boatboy24]

Just back from Wegman's and no shortage of meat, as has been noted by some others. In fact, they were stocked to just about capacity and two people were topping up the pork section with baby backs and butts. The store was quieter than it has been in the last several weeks (I've usually been going on Tuesdays around the same time). Still not a single Bounty paper towel to be seen though - pretty sure they've not been in stock since early March. Only Wegman's brand, and only single roll packs.

 

[ceeaton]

Just went to our local Giant and the 10 briskets I saw last time are gone. Beef is very rare so I got a 3 lb chubb of chuck. They had plenty of pork, chicken and lamb.

On a side note I got my UC PIN today! It took them 2 days (I applied Wednesday they mailed Friday from Charlie Tuna, PA) to process it, I applied 4 business days ago, so the horror stories about waiting a month for your PIN are exaggerated, unless you mess up the application. As with any State form it has it's gray areas, but the hints they list answer all of those.

What a weight off my shoulders!

 

[Boatboy24]

Wow! Did not realize they'd halted wine sales in South Africa. Still illegal to sell domestically, but at least they can fulfill international orders.

https://www.winespectator.com/artic...&utm_content=ea4c8b98a37a328dc3d6b838967d376c

 

[Chuck E]

On a side note I got my UC PIN today! It took them 2 days (I applied Wednesday they mailed Friday from Charlie Tuna, PA) to process it, I applied 4 business days ago, so the horror stories about waiting a month for your PIN are exaggerated, unless you mess up the application. As with any State form it has it's gray areas, but the hints they list answer all of those.

What is a UC Pin?

 

[sour_grapes]

What is a UC Pin?

I am not Craig, but I would imagine it is an Unemployment Compensation Personal Identification Number.

 

[ceeaton]

What is a UC Pin?

Ding, ding, ding! Paul is right (see you are very intelligent). You need to use your pin to file the bi-weekly claim to get your benefit check/deposit. You are at their mercy, so I was happy to see it only took two days for them to process it. I think it is all processed programmatically unless you botch up the online application. That's where the wait can come in since there is no one in L & I (Labor and Industry) to manually fix/check etc to process the application.

 

[ceeaton]

Going to our church's leadership meeting tonight. Haven't had one for three months. We will be discussing when we will reopen for onsite services and what precautions we will take. I tend to be at the conservative end of the spectrum so I think we should wait until the Commonwealth of PA lifts the stay at home orders, scheduled now for June 4th. We'll see if that really materializes. Most of our congregation is older than I am (late 50s) so I don't see the need to expose a portion of the at higher risk population to potential exposure. I'm sure there will be many opinions, so this should be an interesting meeting.

Edit; Today is Wednesday, isn't it? Meeting is tomorrow night...time for another beverage!

 

[Darrell Hawley]

Gov Evers of Wisconsin was overruled by the Wis Supreme Court and Wisconsin is now open. Several city mayors have already put the "stay at home" back in. Should be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days.

 

[Boatboy24]

Virginia begins 'Phase 1' of reopening tomorrow - except for Northern Virginia, where most people in the state live. I'm not happy about it, but it makes sense, given the population density, and our proximity to Maryland and DC.