I have just been working out the math of how many bottles one needs to have on hand to meet one's ongoing needs. (I was trying to figure out how many wine racks to build!)
Here are my assumptions: I wish to make a kit, let it age a certain time, and then consume the bottles at a constant rate over a few years (its shelf life). The variables are:
R bottles consumed/yr
A initial aging time (yrs)
S shelf life after aging (yrs)
I claim you need approximately R*(A + S/2) bottles.
For example, I hope to initially age my wines for 1.5 yrs (A=1.5 yr), and then to keep some of them on the shelf for up to 4 yrs (S=4 yr). To support my roughly 4 bottles a week habit (R=208 bottles/yr), therefore, I should plan on having room to store R*(A + S/2) = 208 b/yr*(1.5yr + 4 yr/2) = 208*3.5 = 728 bottles.
In steady state, you will be adding R bottles to this pile each year, and consuming the same number.
If you are interested in where the S/2 comes from, it stems from the fact that your drinkable bottles have been on the shelf, waiting to be drunk, an average of S/2 yrs. (Many have been on the shelf for 0 yrs, fewer of them 1 yr, fewer yet for 2 yrs, etc.) I did not see that at first, and found a (slightly more accurate) result by summing a mathematical series. After finding the result, it's origin was suddenly obvious.
