Corona Virus & Day to Day

[GreginND]

We have definitely hit at least a local peak in new daily infections in the US. This has not yet had an effect on overall infections and active cases, but it should pretty soon if the trend continues. The death toll continues to rise with about 2000 per day today. I would be surprised if we were to keep that under 50-60 thousand.

 

[bstnh1]

Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said he hopes for “a real degree of normality” by November.

 

[sour_grapes]

Me too!

 

[Steve Wargo]

I think the USA/world will continue some type of mitigation mode longer than we can see into the future. We are dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 a virus that is 5 - 10x more virulent than earlier SARS. Earlier SARS-2005 was contained because the infection/virus was transmitted after a person presented symptoms, not before, still no vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19, / Novel Coronavirus (many names the same virus) does not present early symptoms, so the person is unaware of being infected. Infected COVID-19 persons can spread the virus before presenting with symptoms. One can get COVID-19 just by talking to an infected person, or that person breathing near you, or you running or jogging, walking behind a person infected with COVID-19. Then there are all the surface contact contaminations. November 2020 will be wearing a protective mask, washing your hands, take a shower after arriving home, wash your clothes / jacket immediately after getting home kind of normal. We didn't get a blueprint of this COVID-19 until Mid January 2020. Still, a lot to learn about it. Stay Safe.

 

[ibglowin]

Just looked at our bank account online and the stimulus money is there (processing) I can see the amount. Should be officially transferred by later this afternoon. Start checking if you used direct deposit.

 

[bstnh1]

Just looked at our bank account online and the stimulus money is there (processing) I can see the amount. Should be officially transferred by later this afternoon. Start checking if you used direct deposit.

Mine is there too, but with an effective date of Wednesday 4/15.

 

[bstnh1]

I think the USA/world will continue some type of mitigation mode longer than we can see into the future. We are dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 a virus that is 5 - 10x more virulent than earlier SARS. Earlier SARS-2005 was contained because the infection/virus was transmitted after a person presented symptoms, not before, still no vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19, / Novel Coronavirus (many names the same virus) does not present early symptoms, so the person is unaware of being infected. Infected COVID-19 persons can spread the virus before presenting with symptoms. One can get COVID-19 just by talking to an infected person, or that person breathing near you, or you running or jogging, walking behind a person infected with COVID-19. Then there are all the surface contact contaminations. November 2020 will be wearing a protective mask, washing your hands, take a shower after arriving home, wash your clothes / jacket immediately after getting home kind of normal. We didn't get a blueprint of this COVID-19 until Mid January 2020. Still, a lot to learn about it. Stay Safe.

Nope. I don't believe people will be that paranoid in November that they'll be wearing masks and running for the shower the minute they get home and throwing their clothes in the washing machine on the way. The common cold and the flu are both typically contagious before a person shows symptoms. We don't shed our clothes and dive into the shower because of those. The paranoia surrounding this virus is utterly amazing.

 

[joeswine]

I was talking to a fellow wine maker last night ( Kate). Who is a head of the viruses task force for appropriation for a major hospital here in NJ.
Her comments,in brief.
South Jersey hospital's can't get masks, or any of the other tools needed to fight with, she's begging MFGS. .there all being sent up north.
Asked "did this comes from Bats?" "She said yes ,most definitely. The proved it."
Are masks effective?
"No only if you have the virus".
We talked for over and hour , about making the sanitizer, etc.
She also stated that for some reason others are lumping all deaths together ( respiratory,heart,and flu, it's crazy .)
This is a lady who knows first hand and I trust and not a bad wine maker by the way.
It wasan interesting conversation after that I went down to the cellar and opened up a bottle of Sanginvese.

 

[bstnh1]

I was talking to a fellow wine maker last night ( Kate). Who is a head of the viruses task force for appropriation for a major hospital here in NJ.
Her comments,in brief.
South Jersey hospital's can't get masks, or any of the other tools needed to fight with, she's begging MFGS. .there all being sent up north.
Asked "did this comes from Bats?" "She said yes ,most definitely. The proved it."
Are masks effective?
"No only if you have the virus".
We talked for over and hour , about making the sanitizer, etc.
She also stated that for some reason others are lumping all deaths together ( respiratory,heart,and flu, it's crazy .)
This is a lady who knows first hand and I trust and not a bad wine maker by the way.
It wasan interesting conversation after that I went down to the cellar and opened up a bottle of Sanginvese.

It seems that no one has died recently from any cause other than Covid-19!

 

[Stressbaby]

Nope. I don't believe people will be that paranoid in November that they'll be wearing masks and running for the shower the minute they get home and throwing their clothes in the washing machine on the way. The common cold and the flu are both typically contagious before a person shows symptoms. We don't shed our clothes and dive into the shower because of those. The paranoia surrounding this virus is utterly amazing.

Maybe not, but there is clearly no "normal" by November.

"I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary."

There is no plan to return to normal.

www.vox.com

Also, see my prior replies on case fatality rates.

 

[joeswine]

Normal is what one makes it, will it ever return, who knows?
We need to take each day in stride.take a breath, don't blame anyone and try to move forward.
That's who we are.

 

[Boatboy24]

I've been tracking cases in Virginia for about a month now. Yesterday looked good, but as I expected, we are back up today (I try to check daily between noon and 1pm). Blue line is the 7 day moving average. Hoping the heavy volume these last few days is our peak.

 

[Kraffty]

Hey Jim, are you guys ok with the weather out your way today? Be Safe.
Mike

 

[ibglowin]

Yea, complete and unwarranted paranoia.

The paranoia surrounding this virus is utterly amazing.

 

[Boatboy24]

Hey Jim, are you guys ok with the weather out your way today? Be Safe.
Mike

It sure was nasty this morning. 76 and partly sunny now, though pretty fierce winds. There is a tornado watch and high wind warnings until 6pm local. I went for a run a couple hours ago and with the exception of the occasional strong headwind and puddle jumps, it was quite pleasant.

 

[Johnd]

If accurate, this is significant.....

Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death

A Flourish data visualisation by Robert Martin

public.flourish.studio

 

[Boatboy24]

If accurate, this is significant.....

Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death

A Flourish data visualisation by Robert Martin

public.flourish.studio

Rather alarming.

 

[Johnd]

Rather alarming.

Putting it into perspective, the comparison to other diseases / events, as we get this thing under control, the deaths per day won’t continue at that rate. Here in LA, we peaked (new cases) 10 days ago, 2 - 3 weeks after closing non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing. Most other states are doing the same, but not all.

 

[Boatboy24]

Putting it into perspective, the comparison to other diseases / events, as we get this thing under control, the deaths per day won’t continue at that rate. Here in LA, we peaked (new cases) 10 days ago, 2 - 3 weeks after closing non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing. Most other states are doing the same, but not all.

Interestingly, Virginia will have been 'closed' for two weeks tomorrow (Tuesday). A lot of schools and businesses sent people home a week or two prior to that. But we're still seeing 'studies' (they're mostly opinion pieces) stating that we won't peak until June. So much out there, that you can't believe any of it.

 

[mainshipfred]

I wish I knew what to believe.