Open bet with my buddies

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NorCal

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My high school friends are my best friends. We (up to ten) get together every year for a 4 day get together. There are a few sophisticated wine drinkers, all others are your normal pick up at the grocery store, drink tonight consumers.

When we have our annual trip, I’ll bring a few cases of wine. My open bet is that they bring 3 wines of the same varietal that I made. If they can pick mine out blind, they get a case of my wine free. If they don’t pick mine out, they pay me the average of the three bottles that they brought to compare against mine.

So far no takers, but may have one this year.
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BernardSmith

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sounds like a great wager... I wonder what a statistician would say about who has the odds in whose favor. If each of the three was the same "varietal" but from a different vintner then my money would be on you winning three bottles. Of course, if you could tell your own bottle blind when tasting it along with three other bottles ... I would say that that is a very different wager and all bets are off.
 

sour_grapes

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sounds like a great wager... I wonder what a statistician would say about who has the odds in whose favor. If each of the three was the same "varietal" but from a different vintner then my money would be on you winning three bottles. Of course, if you could tell your own bottle blind when tasting it along with three other bottles ... I would say that that is a very different wager and all bets are off.
I'm a bit confused by your comment, Bernard. NorCal's stated bet does not have any reference at all to his being able to pick out his wine.
 

BernardSmith

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I get that but I was suggesting that anyone who could identify NorCal's wine from four possibilities would have to have either incredible luck or would have to be an incredibly skillful wine taster. So the House (NorCAl) is almost certain to win. However, if NorCal also offered to identify his own bottles in the same competition then the odds would be very different and the House would no longer be as sure to win...
 

NorCal

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My bet is that their ability to distinguish between the wines is greater than the difference in the wines that they would choose. Certainly my wines would not hold up to expensive wines and a critical palate, but I know my buddies pretty well and I think I have the House Odds as @BernardSmith has noted.
 

Boatboy24

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Awesome to read about this. I just got back from 4 days with my high school buddies - also my best friends. We had no such bets, but we sure talk a lot of trash. In fact, I'm really the only wine drinker of the bunch. Most are beer or mixed drinks.
 
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