Corona Virus & Day to Day

Wine Making Talk

Help Support Wine Making Talk:

hounddawg

Dawg
Joined
Oct 23, 2014
Messages
1,315
Reaction score
469
Location
very N.E. Arkansas in the instep of MO,,
A skeptical person might think that the CDC has been flat out lying to keep the general public from competing for the N95 masks. Chinese officials have been on record as saying the masks are necessary.
my family and i stocked up a little and locked down mid february, the CDC said that surgical grade masks were useless, yet all medical personnel were wearing and still wearing surgical grade mask. 2 days ago i ordered 100 more mask, my health is , very ruff and i have a tracheostomy,,, so tube sticking out my neck straight to my lungs, so i ordered 100 masks, day B4 yesterday, today i got a email that, that vendo was arrested and his masks confiscated, the email was from the government/ebay joint email, stating that due to my disabilities and ruff health that i would get and keep my mask, and 100 pair of medical gloves, that proves right there in my book that the CDC is lying to people, the more money you have and the more power you have will get you moved ahead of the curve, i have neither but my items were shipped just hours before the raid, so they let it go. i have used the words
9(((they))) an/or (((them))), some called me on that, so i made it clear a huge part of my info was from the CDC & WHO,,, their rules are constantly changing as they learn more,,,, this is not the time for snide comments,, no this is the time for all americans to unite as one in order to survive this global spread has no borders, no colors, no creeds, yes i am going on 7 weeks of lock down, and for the ones of yawl are used to socializing,, i know this is driving you nuts, but remember when anyone of us make bad decisions, then the bad decisions for our loved ones, can be permanent,,,
Dawg
 
Last edited by a moderator:

joeswine

joeswine
Joined
Nov 15, 2007
Messages
7,028
Reaction score
1,251
When it comes to these things does anyone know the real truth about this problem or are we truly a day to day ,as what found out yesterday.?
All's we can do is day by day , listen and learn and hoping this will come to an end soon 👍.
 

Rice_Guy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2014
Messages
704
Reaction score
408
Location
Midwest
We are too new in this to have “scientific method truth”. That will come down the road. In the mean time we are making analogies from what was known with other health events whether in chicken flocks or SARS outbreak.
The analogies/ guesses change as we gather info, ,,, the boss used to hate that I would run a week of testing and modify/ improve the guess. AND,, I have been surprised how many times I have beat my head on the wall looking for an answer and found what I was looking for by stepping back/ starting the next project. Looking in hind sight we will see what is real, ,,, in the mean time we go by track record, ,, if someone gives consistent info they are more believable, ,, if an article/ researcher explains how new info changed the prior model I will trust it more. Research is like the rule of three, ,,, get three estimates on a roof or kitchen model or real estate agent and toss out the weird one.
When it comes to these things does anyone know the real truth about this problem or are we truly a day to day ,as what found out yesterday.
The thing that I fear most in this is people hiding information since it will make them look bad. I will trust folks like Johnson and Johnson because after Tylenol contamination they said we had a problem/ mistake and they publicly correct it. everyone makes mistakes !
 

BernardSmith

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2011
Messages
3,067
Reaction score
1,196
Location
Saratoga Springs
A skeptical person might think that the CDC has been flat out lying to keep the general public from competing for the N95 masks. Chinese officials have been on record as saying the masks are necessary.
N95 masks are essential if you work in a hospital and your face is inches from people both shedding and spraying viral material. You and I don't need such masks if we keep 6 feet away from everyone not in our immediate household AND we wash every time we touch something upon which someone who was infected could have shed viral material.
That said, I have to assume that we cannot know how close we are to mitigating (still less containing) the spread of this virus: we are not testing 100 percent of the population and those we test we are not testing in real time. That quite simply means we have no good idea of who is infected and who is shedding and who is asymptomatic but shedding and who is free and clear. When we have a better handle on those data then and only then can we know whether the rate of infection is in fact slowing down because fewer people are becoming infected or if it APPEARS to be slowing down because fewer people who are symptomatic or are asymptomatic are being tested. You can be infected and you can be shedding (and so spreading the virus) even a) days before you have ANY symptoms and b) even if you have NO symptoms... The ONE possible alternative indication is when the death rate drops (but that datum I am not certain enough to bet on)...
 

GreginND

Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined
Mar 18, 2012
Messages
3,650
Reaction score
1,948
Location
Fargo, ND
Sorry, my previous data was not correct. New cases are growing. This was as of the end of yesterday. We've topped 200,000 cases in the US today.

These are new cases PER DAY.
New-per-day-3-31.jpg
US-vs-Italy-3-31.jpgUS-vs-Spain-3-31.jpg
 

sour_grapes

Victim of the Invasion of the Avatar Snatchers
Joined
Sep 19, 2013
Messages
10,576
Reaction score
8,128
Location
near Milwaukee
Sorry, my previous data was not correct. New cases are growing. This was as of the end of yesterday. We've topped 200,000 cases in the US today.
I am sorry the news isn't better, but thanks for the update.
 

Rice_Guy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2014
Messages
704
Reaction score
408
Location
Midwest
Greg, I wonder how bad it would look if it was normalized to cases per 10,000?
Sorry, my previous data was not correct. New cases are growing. This was as of the end of yesterday. We've topped 200,000 cases in the US. . . These are new cases PER DAY
 

hounddawg

Dawg
Joined
Oct 23, 2014
Messages
1,315
Reaction score
469
Location
very N.E. Arkansas in the instep of MO,,

bstnh1

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2012
Messages
492
Reaction score
218
Location
In the woods of New Hampshire
The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 has led to more than 454,000 illnesses and more than 20,550 deaths worldwide. For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
 

sour_grapes

Victim of the Invasion of the Avatar Snatchers
Joined
Sep 19, 2013
Messages
10,576
Reaction score
8,128
Location
near Milwaukee
The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 has led to more than 454,000 illnesses and more than 20,550 deaths worldwide. For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
But this comparison is faulty, so I am not sure why you are making it. While the flu is a serious disease, the numbers you cite are integrated over a full season and cover the large fraction of the US population that has been exposed to the flu. The novel coronavirus has not (yet) circulated widely, and the deaths have only happened over a few weeks.

I am pretty confident that, for the flu, they don't set up 85 reefer trucks in one city to serve as morgues, nor do other cities convert ice rinks to morgues.

BTW, I don't know when you pulled your illness/death numbers, but they are already off by a factor of two, that is, there have been more than twice as many COVID-19 illnesses and deaths as you cite. In other words, you are a few days behind the times (which should be an indicator of another reason not to make this comparison).
 

bstnh1

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2012
Messages
492
Reaction score
218
Location
In the woods of New Hampshire
The '57-'58 H2N2 Asian Flu killed 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the U.S. I don't remember any panic about it at the time nor any measures like "stay at home", etc.
The 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 1 million worldwide and 100,000 in the U.S. And again, I do not recall any isolation type measures being taken.
My point is that we have experienced "new" viruses in the past for which there was no vaccine that sickened and killed a lot of people. I don't see this one as much different. The isolation measures will slow the spread of it and ease the immediate impact on health care facilities. But none of these measures will actually stop the spread of the virus.
 

sour_grapes

Victim of the Invasion of the Avatar Snatchers
Joined
Sep 19, 2013
Messages
10,576
Reaction score
8,128
Location
near Milwaukee
The isolation measures will slow the spread of it and ease the immediate impact on health care facilities. But none of these measures will actually stop the spread of the virus.
On this we are in complete agreement. I have no idea why citing seasonal flu numbers (in your first post) would help make this point.
 

Rice_Guy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2014
Messages
704
Reaction score
408
Location
Midwest
To mask or not to mask? ### an interesting comparison of filter efficiency by prof Nasia Safdar (school of medicine) in an alumni news chat:

N95 masks should take 97% of particulates out
vacuum cleaner bags come in at 93% of particulates removed ****brain storm *** ? how could I fabricate a mask from a vacuum cleaner? ? ****
a lot of the paper ones do 50% efficiency and cotton towels are less
 

ibglowin

Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined
Jul 7, 2009
Messages
21,385
Reaction score
11,853
Location
Northern Nuevo Mexico
Lots of DIY videos on using HEPA vacuum cleaner bags to make mask at home with an insert for the HEPA filter. We just got a shipment yesterday from Amazon. Mrs IB is making mask today for wearing when going out in public. Some info (warmings) have popped up today saying these bags have chemical fumes that off gas (people can smell the fumes when they are an inch away from their nose). Not sure if placing the bags in a small toaster oven at low temp (outdoors) would solve the gas/fume problem. We may or may not use the bags at this time but we will be looking into it obviously.
 
Last edited:

Rice_Guy

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2014
Messages
704
Reaction score
408
Location
Midwest
I have been blessed with looking over the shoulder of the daughter in the medical system. They have been looking at measures for at least three weeks in response to COVID19 trying to adjust the network to work around short supplies, staff shortages, cash flow issues, staff burn out, limiting family access, etc. The health network is always trying to improve their patient interaction quality.
. . We failed to take the measures that could have alleviated death and suffering in the past so we should be prohibited from doing it now?
 

BernardSmith

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2011
Messages
3,067
Reaction score
1,196
Location
Saratoga Springs
How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks

Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure changes in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all
 

GreginND

Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined
Mar 18, 2012
Messages
3,650
Reaction score
1,948
Location
Fargo, ND
How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks

Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure changes in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all
I now you said you are not looking for answers, but let me provide some for others.

The coronavirus particle size is about 70-90 nanometers. That is 0.07 micrometers (microns). A HEPA filter standards are to filter out 97% of particles down to 0.3 microns. So, they are not very effective at removing virus particles. That being said, the virus is usually suspended in larger droplets that can be filtered.

There are varying reports of how long the SARS-CoV-2 virus is suspended in the air in aerosols or droplets. Most say not that long - 15 minutes?

Face masks, even simple cloth ones, are better than nothing. They are most effective at preventing an infected person from creating airborne droplets. They help reduce the amount of virus spread from coughs and sneezes. Masks that are not tight fitting won't do a lot to protect the wearer from aerosolized droplets getting around them. But I do think it is still better than having nothing that might catch some droplets and reduce the exposure. I would point out that Asian countries, where widespread mask use when out in public is common, have generally been more effective at slowing the spread.

I've had a lot of people tell me I should be comparing my graphs against populations to get an accurate risk. The point of absolute numbers is not to determine individual risk, but to determine the rate of spread. This is dependent on absolute numbers of infected interacting with others. The problem is there are many variables that affect that - testing frequency and change thereof, regional population densities, etc. etc.

Comparing COVID-19 death rates to other diseases and causes is usually fraught with errors because we are only at the beginning of this pandemic and other statistics are deaths over a much longer time frame. There is a lag after infection and showing symptoms to death. As our infected numbers rise, deaths will rise probably at an increasing rate over the short term until we catch up with the lag.

There are sobering statistics about mortality with severity. The numbers I am seeing from medical professionals in New York and other hard hit areas indicate that 50-80% of people who enter ICU with COVID-19 die. You don't want to get that sick. The chances are not good.
 
2

Latest posts

Top