Most probable number
when I was a kid working in the micro lab we ran a serial dilution test for E. coli, ,, counted the number of positive in each dilution, ,, went to a table and then gave the MPN for the bug. I wish this was calculated for covid in every county in the US.
ex,,, if all US meat plants with 3000 employees are hot spots the covid MPN was one in 3K
if one person in the church cohort has it let’s see,,, one in 200
if the wife’s school district had ten in June, ,,, twenty one in July and ,,, August maybe double the risk is N in N hundred. and so on. ,,,, risk day by day is a numbers game, and we all live it deciding what neighborhood is OK or to toss out the canned product that is bulging
Where this all leads is it is coming will it be this week or next year? ,,, This feels kinda like going to the dentist.