1 In 5 California Early Adopters of EVs Move Back To ICE - For Convenience Reasons......

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Boatboy24

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Oh, sure. And you can could also buy a Smart car.... How many of those do you see around? None. Because the stopped selling them in the USA... Again... Social issues in the USA are for larger and larger cars.... Also a growing trend here in Europe. Huge SUVs.... being driven with one person inside. Waste of energy. Does not matter how good the engine is, or the type of motor. Simple waste of energy. I wonder if anyone has done the full math and environmental analysis... Better for one person to drive a motorcycle with an ICE or a large Electric SUV?
I see a lot more Smart Cars now than I did ten years ago. SUV's are certainly commonplace though. But it isn't as if smaller cars aren't available. The image originally referred to would make one think that car makers no longer offer a reasonably sized two door sedan; when, in fact, there are many available at many price points. It is us, the consumers, that are driving that trend. But's it's much easier to blame the car makers for our buying preferences.
 
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winemaker81

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Every major manufacture has made a date to be ICE free and if they don't the Chinese will be selling cars at Walmart and all those american jobs will just be gone.
Nope. The primary reason -- at this time -- why EV can't work in the USA is that we lack the ability to generate enough electricity AND distribute that electricity. It doesn't matter how good or inexpensive EV are, without the juice to power them, it's not going to happen.

Other serious problems are led by the fact that materials for batteries are not readily available in large quantities, so batteries made from more common materials must be developed.

The reality is that EV cannot mass replace ICE at this time, nor is it likely to happen in the near future. Once the problems are solved? Sure, it may happen.

Regarding deadlines, anyone can set a deadline. Achieving that deadline is something totally different. Reality is like gravity, disbelieving in it doesn't exempt anyone from it.
 

bstnh1

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Nope. The primary reason -- at this time -- why EV can't work in the USA is that we lack the ability to generate enough electricity AND distribute that electricity. It doesn't matter how good or inexpensive EV are, without the juice to power them, it's not going to happen.

Other serious problems are led by the fact that materials for batteries are not readily available in large quantities, so batteries made from more common materials must be developed.

The reality is that EV cannot mass replace ICE at this time, nor is it likely to happen in the near future. Once the problems are solved? Sure, it may happen.

Regarding deadlines, anyone can set a deadline. Achieving that deadline is something totally different. Reality is like gravity, disbelieving in it doesn't exempt anyone from it.
Best response I've seen in this thread! You hit the nail on the head! The ICE will be here for quite a while yet.
 

balatonwine

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Other serious problems are led by the fact that materials for batteries are not readily available in large quantities, so batteries made from more common materials must be developed.
Most batteries today are made from Lithium. According to the following link below (stanford.edu), if we used all the known lithium reserves only to make car batteries, the world could build from 4 to 8 billion cars (depending on how you calculate).... Would that be enough? Maybe not.

 

balatonwine

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The ICE will be here for quite a while yet.
In theory.... the ICE engine is based on carbon. It would be expensive with today's technology, but one can turn any renewable carbon source into an ICE fuel, if the energy needed to do so was available. In which case, ICE engines can become carbon neutral. I for one think more funding should be put into any and all alternative sources of energy to make renewable liquid fuels carbon neutral. Personally, I am a fan of both decentralized solar and centralized fusion (future tech). but that is just me.

After all... No one has developed a commercial aircraft flying over the Atlantic running on batteries.....
 
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balatonwine

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winemaker81

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Most batteries today are made from Lithium. According to the following link below (stanford.edu), if we used all the known lithium reserves only to make car batteries, the world could build from 4 to 8 billion cars (depending on how you calculate).... Would that be enough? Maybe not.
I can't recall where I read about a limit on lithium, it was a while ago. IIRC, large deposits are in places where it's not readily available to the world, e.g., China. The article you posted stated that one enormous deposit is in Bolivia, but isn't being mined for political and economic reasons. Plus other deposits are of a type that is more expensive to extract. The issue doesn't appear to be a simple one.
 

bstnh1

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I can't recall where I read about a limit on lithium, it was a while ago. IIRC, large deposits are in places where it's not readily available to the world, e.g., China. The article you posted stated that one enormous deposit is in Bolivia, but isn't being mined for political and economic reasons. Plus other deposits are of a type that is more expensive to extract. The issue doesn't appear to be a simple one.
Hang in there. The Energizer bunny will come through with a solution! :db
 

bstnh1

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Musk broke it down:

  • There are around two billion cars and trucks in use in the world.
  • Annual production capacity is around 100 million vehicles per year.
  • Cars and trucks last around 20 years before they go to the junkyard.
  • Electric vehicles are “still well under one percent” of the global fleet.
  • That means it will likely take 30 to 40 years before Tesla doesn’t have to do any more mining for batteries, or 2050 to 2060.
 

geek

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Electric vehicles are “still well under one percent” of the global fleet.
That is why he saw the HUGE business opportunity and the company is doing so well. We can just imagine how the trend and transition to EV will evolve and be such a good business outlook for those manufacturers to adapt to the new technology moving forward. The market is tremendous.!
 

globalnavigator

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I'll post this even at the risk of people ignoring independent rating and data in order to bash CR, me, or the information. Don't shoot the messenger!


Car Brand Reliability Rankings

Latest Consumer Reports ranks Tesla 27th out of 28 companies for reliability (only Lincoln worse). Scores are out of 100.

Tesla- 25

MODEL PREDICTED RELIABILITY SCORES

Model 3 - 59

Model S - 20

Model Y - 18

Model X - 5

Seems to apply across the EV SUV spectrum as well - "On the other hand, all-electric SUVs are the lowest-ranking category, with an overall reliability of below average."

It would seem there is a lot of improvement needed still.
 

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balatonwine

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"Clean" energy cars... Well, actually, like all things it is complicated....

 

geek

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I'll post this even at the risk of people ignoring independent rating and data in order to bash CR, me, or the information. Don't shoot the messenger!


Car Brand Reliability Rankings

Latest Consumer Reports ranks Tesla 27th out of 28 companies for reliability (only Lincoln worse). Scores are out of 100.

Tesla- 25

MODEL PREDICTED RELIABILITY SCORES

Model 3 - 59

Model S - 20

Model Y - 18

Model X - 5

Seems to apply across the EV SUV spectrum as well - "On the other hand, all-electric SUVs are the lowest-ranking category, with an overall reliability of below average."

It would seem there is a lot of improvement needed still.
According to CR, Tesla has the most satisfied owners.
Also CR, Tesla sells the most unreliable cars.
Weird, huh? Be your own judge. CR has lost all credibility to me and it is known they’re bias.

I’ve had my car for over 3 years and reliability is not a problem I can tell you.

There are a few Model S owners in CT that I know and who purchased their vehicles 10 years ago, one of them with way over 200k miles, and aside from normal wear and tear expected they’ve had zero reliability issues whatsoever. There’s one guy who has never changed the brake pads.

So that article is very suspicious to us who do have these cars and can testify real life what they are for sure.
 

winemaker81

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According to CR, Tesla has the most satisfied owners.
Also CR, Tesla sells the most unreliable cars.
Actually, not weird. It's 2 different statistics. "Satisfied owners" is a single direct question asked of owners.

Reliability is based upon the repairs reported by owners. It's easily possible to have both satisfied owners and a lack of reliability as CR judges it.

Overall I find CR ratings highly useful, but on occasion I read something that "does not compute". In these cases I email with questions, and usually get a reply back. Everyone is more honest with someone looking over their shoulder .....
 

stickman

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Maybe the nuclear breeding reactors will be the more reasonable approach to sustainable and reliable clean electric power, but still a little ways off, and also difficult to imagine the time required for all of the various buildings and homes to replace the gas fired equipment typically used in the colder parts of the world. Phased in grid upgrades etc., I don't think it's going to happen quickly, no need to rush as I think we have plenty of time to do it right.
 

geek

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Actually, not weird. It's 2 different statistics. "Satisfied owners" is a single direct question asked of owners.

Reliability is based upon the repairs reported by owners. It's easily possible to have both satisfied owners and a lack of reliability as CR judges it.

Overall I find CR ratings highly useful, but on occasion I read something that "does not compute". In these cases I email with questions, and usually get a reply back. Everyone is more honest with someone looking over their shoulder .....
But I'd be curious what they call reliability. I can give you real life experience as we are over 1k group owners in CT and yes there have been quality panel gaps issues that have been corrected, but reliability means to me something you cannot rely on to use, furthermore that can be thrown out the window.
Again, there have been quality issues with the built of the body with mis-alignments and a few other issues not considered to qualify in the reliability category.

I'd call reliability something like a Chevy Bolt which the company asked owners to park their cars away from their garage due to fire hazards.

If this car I own can bring me across the country without major hiccups, if any at all, that is a reliable vehicle, to me at least. All in all, the other big boys are trying to catchup and find all kind of resources to throw dirt on the brand that has been leading EVs in technology and sales, even if that means throwing money at some people to write on the negative side. If this brand is so unreliable, I really wonder why thousands and thousands keep making reservations pushing deliveries to months before you can put your hands on a new car.

Do we all remember the "EV meeting" at the white house where Tesla was NOT invited?? Hmmmmmmm.....
 

joeswine

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I saw an article that comes , it , that the head of the Japanese government stated they could not do EV, because they wouldn’t have enough energy left to poewet Japan.
remember the article I stated a while back about the Lithium mining in South America , the largest supply in the world , the people that area are up in arms, so once we use the salt latte up ??????
 

Joel

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If the people with the right power pushed perhaps they could push molten salt reactors to the forefront, they would help lighten the load with the increase of the EV's charging demands. I am counting on the free market to help push this and new solid state or a completely new type of long term batteries.
 

winemaker81

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But I'd be curious what they call reliability.
It's directly related to the reports -- by Tesla owners -- of the problems encountered and -- or not -- repaired. Like 'em or not, when CR states that a vehicle is not reliable, they are fully prepared to defend themselves against lawsuits. Major vehicle manufacturers have filed lawsuits against CR, and AFAIK, all have lost.

I have nothing against Tesla or EVs in general. On the surface EVs sound like a good idea, but the reality is that our power generation and distribution infrastructure will not support large scale adoption of EVs. Until those problems are solved, EV will not gain wipe spread adoption.
 
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